Julian Nagelsmann and Bayern: In sickness and in health.
"Julian is a young, creative & innovative coach who has a great career ahead of him. He now has a different challenge with FC Bayern. Everyone of us is absolutely convinced of him."
Early October and Bayern are in crisis mode! They’re 3rd in the league table, 4 points off league leaders Union Berlin, scoring 25 goals in 9 matches while being tied for the 2nd best defense in Germany with Gladbach. Over in the international front Bayern are top of their supposed group of death in the Champions League; 3 matches 3 wins, 9 goals scored 0 conceded. What a disaster. It would seem the clubs objectives for the season are out of reach, the performances are not up to par with the quality of players and the manager is having a negative effect. Is this the beginning of the end for Nagelsmann’s time at Bayern? The truth is far from it considering the position they’re in, any calls for change now and not patience sounds out of touch with the realities of football. With every passing week those in charge at Bayern double down on their confidence in the 35 year old manager. At Bayern, Nagelsmann is seen as the answer to a question that those in charge have been itching to answer for over a decade. The question: What does the new Bayern brand look like?
January 16th, 2013. Bayern made a quantum leap towards their answer.
Why would a treble-winning side, albeit decided before Heynckes’s incredible second half of the season in 2013, change its manager? To understand the reasoning behind it requires an understanding of both the tangible and intangibles of modern football. Bayern had an illustrious history, they were and still are one of the richest clubs in the world, it shared a glorious run of success that spans over 5 decades and it was built on virtues the Bavarians valued most. What they lacked however was a playing philosophy. The two most important figures in Bayern’s history: Uli Hoeness and Karl-Heinz Rummenigge were envious of clubs who had an identity on the pitch. They were no longer interested in just success, they wanted an enduring hallmark which would establish their dominance once and for all. They wished that the Bayern brand wouldn’t simply be related to effort, courage, power and victory. That journey started in the form of Pep Guardiola.
‘This team just needs to slow down a bit. They’ve already got everything else down”- Guardiola, 2013
The signing of Pep went beyond the football pitch for Bayern, it was a top to bottom success. From being able to boast the most iconic figure in world football in shareholder meetings, to the many coaches from around the world begging to be present in his open training sessions, it is seen as the biggest win at the club to this day. The changes on the football pitch from Pep is what was most impactful, it was there that Pep introduced the ingredients for Bayern’s identity. Compact zonal defending rather than man marking; a more conservative four second counter pressing; balance in verticality; stylish third man runs; fluidity between the lines; less reliance on wide creation; better interchange of positioning; an understanding of tempo and rhythm; control. Guardiola in his time at Bayern brought about positive change not just within Bayern but throughout the Bundesliga and German football. However it was short lived, only lasting 3 seasons before the flurry of Bayern managers went back to old ways due to the expectations of success.
Ancelotti was pragmatic and outdated for Bayern’s cause, even having players run secret training sessions due to the lack of intensity in training. Jupp Heynckes was a cry to an ex that had felt hard done by, but even his time saw no progress. Niko Kovač worst of all was an appointment that admitted defeat at the lack of managers at the time that could’ve continued Pep’s legacy. Hansi Flick, rewarding yet damaging. Flick’s Bayern could best be described as-my attack is better than yours 9/10 times and that is what I’m going to bet on. The roll of the dice never really caught up to Flick and Bayern however the cracks were starting to appear more and more during his first and final full season. It took a toll on the players, stunting development, causing a rift upstairs with management, conceding 44 goals by the end of his full season at Bayern. For those who think I’m being too harsh on Bayern’s most successful manager, the football he deployed was unsustainable in every sense of the word. Bayern fans will tell you, any starter comes off the pitch the quality crumbles, it wasn’t due to the squad it was the playing style, hardly ever rotating as well. It was sprinting out of the gates during a marathon.
The Prophecy: Hoffenheim
Just shortly after the turn of the year during the 15/16 season, 28 year old Julian Nagelsmann was appointed at Hoffenheim. The youngest ever manager in the Bundesliga- still studying for his coaching license at the time- finished the campaign winning 7 out of the remaining 14 fixtures that season, a teaser for what he had in store for the following year. Summarizing his time at Hoffenheim his preferences remained constant, he used a back 3 with two wingbacks, a holding midfielder and 4 flexible attackers. On the occasion the setup looked different but the principles were more or less constant. His Hoffenheim side looked to build up from the back and dominate possession, showing courage in the numbers they flooded forward. They looked to overload the spaces between the opposition’s backline and midfield, whenever those spaces were blocked off players went in and out of pockets looking to receive the ball interchanging positions - the CB’s and wingbacks would use the wide areas to shake things up a bit, trick them into thinking that the play was about to go wide again- only to find those pockets open back up again. The forwards would knock the ball around one touch to themselves playing the ball towards the face of play looking to advance as a unit through the middle, the shape resembled a 3-1-6 when they were at their best, it lead to some very attractive football. Lukas Rupp, formally at Hoffenheim told Raphael Honigstein of the athletic, “Training was so difficult for your mind because you had to think about so much stuff like how many touches you were allowed, which colour you were allowed to play. You were overloaded in your head so much that you were then so relaxed when you just played a normal 11 v 11. Then you knew you had so much time because before, you were thinking about what you were allowed to do and should be doing.” But it didn’t stop there, what was most eye catching during his time at Hoffenheim was how he found new roles for players -a bit reductive at times with their qualities- it would help them reach heights the didn’t see in themselves. Niklas Sule, a youth striker now a ball playing CB. Karem Demirbay, a winger playing in central areas looking to dribble at defenders. Joelintion, an underperforming striker turned wrecking ball through the midfield. He had an eye for making use of the repetitive qualities players had. He was synonymous for how he would inflated the output of forwards in Germany. During this time Nagelsmann also showed the virtues big clubs look for in their managers, a charismatic diplomat who could navigate his way through the media while working under a preexisting structure at a club with sporting directors, technical directors, CEO, club presidents and so forth. A perfect example is his former sporting director at Hoffenheim mentioning how he his only demand one summer window was getting more players who spoke German so he could use English less often. His two full seasons, he finished 4th and 3rd, earning them CL football for two years. It was the perfect resume for his next move.
The Journey: RB Leipzig
What was Nagelsmann’s Leipzig? Everything. They did it all from building up from the back to playing it long to a target man. They could be as compact as Mourinho’s Inter soaking up pressure or run at you from all sides like Bielsa’s Leeds. As fast as Klopp’s Dortmund and as slow as Guardiola’s Barcelona. It’s really hard to include all the formations, tactical variations and profile of players he used in his time at Leipzig but 3 components were on show during his tenure. #1, Possession. With the jump in quality of players at his disposal Nagelsmann became more possession orientated. They wanted the ball as much as possible, building up from the back and using overloads in each phase as they looked to progress up the pitch. His Leipzig side were never much into long switches instead opting out for overloading the middle of the pitch using minimum width -only having 1 player out in the wide zones at a time- to make sure it was always easy to change the speed of the game and recycle possession. It allowed for easier counter pressing, better control over the middle of the pitch and gave his side more inherent speed to their play. As he puts it "most managers around the world want big distances in possession. I want short distances between players because the ball moves very quickly and you can show the way for counterpressing, which is the most important topic." You’d find yourself one week watching a Leipzig team who played at a snails pace only to find them out running an opponent the next. Its just one of many ways he likes to take ideas in football and still make it his own. #2 Balance. Playing the Leipzig way of being athletic, vertical and winning as many second balls as possible while also implementing the possession principles. Leipzig were good at always taking what the defense gave them. Space in behind they weren’t against going long. Pegged back into their own half they’d often use their target man to knock down the ball to the on coming forwards, something he used often at Hoffenheim with Sandro Wagner. At Leipzig it was Yussuf Poulsen, Patrik Schick and later on Alexander Sorloth. They could become very vertical and direct in their approach, overpowering their opponent with their fitness levels; a trademark of the RasenBallsport club ethos while immediately being able to flip the switch whenever they see fit. It was something you only saw with those very big clubs around Europe coached by the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp. #3 innovation. Yes, I’ll mention the massive LED screen that was built at Leipzig’s training ground to help players better understand positioning, body orientation and team shape. But his modern approach to the game wasn’t just that. He collected data on his players to better optimize their running speed, distance and energy conversion. Even the finest of margins he looked to improve. After watching City’s all or nothing series he had Leipzig’s dressing room redesigned in an oval shape like City’s opting to swap out their more traditional square shape dressing room so he could communicate with players better. This is a man always looking to be at the forefront of football’s growing relationship with technology. While met with slight backlash he once said "American football is much more technologically advanced than football. The quarterback has an earpiece to hear his coach, we absolutely need that. Football must stop hiding behind tradition and revolutionize itself " he doesn’t want to be left behind. Leipzig’s objective with Nagelsmann’s appointment was to become a consistent top 4 side in the Bundesliga and look to be a real contender for the title (as realistically as possible) and he did just that and more. Its no wonder the group of players he worked with relapsed the second a different manager was brought in, he pushed the envelope for yet another ambitious club.
The dream: FC Bayern
During his first interview with Bayern, the Bavarian-born manager revealed he used to sleep in Bayern red sheets as a kid growing up and that he’ll probably start doing it again now that he’s at the helm of his boyhood club. Nagelsmann never shied away from stating his dream of becoming a Bayern manager. He voiced his dream during his time at Hoffenheim stating how hard it was to turn down the opportunity to coach Bayern’s u-19’s - little did he know the climb at Hoffenheim would soon become quicker than he could’ve ever imagined. He would even be spotted in the Allianz arena while being a Bundesliga manager from time to time. Confronted on the matter Nagelsmann reiterated “I'm still a Hoffenheim coach despite my red coat, my red shoes, my red Cola bottle and my red car". His departure from Leipzig was not welcomed but even they knew Nagelsmann’s lifelong dream was possible, all they could do was negotiate a large fee. Nagelsmann, now the most expensive manager ever had what he long wanted. The expectations at Bayern are unwritten but very explicit; League title, League cup, and a semi-final appearance in the Champions league. That is what the club strives for every year, to reign in domestic dominance and to be among the top 4 best teams in Europe. Nagelsmann’s first season at was not terrible, not great, just good. Had the football not been very convincing when his best XI was at his disposal he would’ve been no different than Kovac’s first season. His first task was to improve the football on display, and all evidence lead to suggest it was. Bayern were better defensively, now playing a compact zonal marking system that sought to cover spaces and block off passing lanes. They conceded half as less as they did under Hansi Flick on the break prioritizing rest defense and were more convincing against set pieces. They attacked better, more fluidity between the lines, better technical consistency, less dependance on wide overloads and creativity opting for better use of his dynamic ball carriers and give and go players. Box occupation was used to get more goals out of the supporting cast around Lewandowski. Players xG went up, Lewandowksi saw the best service he’s ever had in his career, Sane went from being a touchline winger to a dynamic left half space forward. Davies’s progressive runs from 70 yards away from the goal went away as Bayern became better at building up from the back. Possession became better, the vertical/direct play became more methodical and incisive. Bayern sustained pressure for longer period and the high turnover rate saw some very easy goals being scored. This was what Bayern have been looking for, a team that could do it all. Nagelsmann showed he could get even more out of established players while implementing his ideas at the same time. He took Flick’s 4-2-3-1 and made it into a 3-2-2-3 in possession and a 4-3-3 out of possession so it had better balance. After a season riddled with injuries and a lack of depth Bayern looked to fix the quality in the squad. Bayern is a club that makes club signings, rarely do you see managers getting to hand pick players. Even the signings this summer (Gravenberch, De Ligt, Mazraoui, Tel, Mane) were all down to the pairing of Hasan Salihamidžić (sporting director) and Marco Neppe (Technical director). Players out last managers and that’s the main factor in Bayern’s recruitment, they are all to be of quality and function under multiple different managers. Nagelsmann has a good working relationship with both men as he often trades ideas on new players with them but ultimately he doesn’t have the final say nor does he make demands on what sort of player he wants. It’s a trait this institution is fond of. Often the trio would be present at youth league matches showing how interconnect they’d like the Bayern campus and first team to be. This season Bayern have improved but on the surface its hard to see with the many draws. Bayern’s underlying numbers show they’ve taken a jump in chances created and chances conceded. His debut 4-2-2-2 against Frankfurt showed his tactical variability and understanding of what was needed to win a game but this isn’t his envisioned 22/23 Bayern. He quickly went away from the 4-2-2-2 for better flexibility, control, and rest defense. He doesn't prefer to use a flat back 4 buildup needed for it, the 4-2-3-1 has the flexibility to become a 3-1 or 2-3 buildup without personnel change, and its continuity from last season. The biggest challenge as much as it would seem to be goals with the departure of Lewandowski and the lack of “killing off games” as he puts it, its control. "The team is used to attack quickly, it was the same under Hansi Flick. There are moments when you have to keep the ball. But the players are geared towards playing quickly towards the goal. We don't have a player at the moment who is keen on calming the game down" In Bayern’s most recent match they showed massive signs of improvement in that department. During the second half the introduction of Joshua Kimmich saw Bayern be threating while playing at a much slower pace, retaining possession and probing whenever possible. Every single player had a calmness to them knowing when to slow things down and speed things up. When Bayern did speed the game up through the middle it lead to their second goal with quick one touch passing that saw Leroy Sane smash it in. Bayern kept cruising, it took the noise out of the stadium and the Dortmund players started to show frustration on their face, but it was short lived. Dortmund equalized and the game became hectic again, Coman’s red card didn’t help much. What should’ve been a 2-0 away win turned into the usual performance on display in the Der Klassiker. This Bayern side will only be as good as the control they can find and impose in each game. The signs are there its now a matter of time to show it more often for longer periods and in each passing match. As Uli Honess put it after the match "It's actually not Bayern-like - if you lead 2-0 then you should win the game. Bayern-like is just to have a lot of self-confidence and say to the others: Now there's still more to come and then you hit them with the third goal". The change in identity is still in progress. It’s important to understand what Nagelsmann represents for Bayern as much as what he does. Playing the style modern football demands, developing youth players, innovating to stay ahead, and finally achieving this long term goal of becoming a Bayern brand. Nagelsmann won’t just see out his 5 year contract, he’ll more than likely have an extension somewhere in the future. There isn’t a better fit than Bayern and Nagelsmann, the club sees the asset they have in their first team manager and will without a shadow of doubt keep backing him in sickness and in health.
